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Toxic: Why the rumoured budget doesn't sound credible

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Jana Nayagan and Toxic are produced by the same production house: KVN Productions. The budget of Vijay's movie must have exceeded the initial outlay of Rs 400 Cr due to delays. One can't say by how much. The budget of Yash's movie is hard to estimate; and this paucity of info has let gossip-mongers cite nuclear-grade silly figures.

Unverified news reports claim that the budget of Toxic is Rs 700-800 Cr. This makes KVN Productions' stake in the two movies as high as Rs 1050-1150 Cr. Had everything gone well, both films should have hit the screens by now.

Many cinema pages have started saying that KVN Productions is in a deep financial crisis. They miss a verifiable fact: Toxic is not the banner's solo production. Yash is also its producer. If he charged only a minimal upfront fee, it means he gets to pocket a share in the total revenue.

It's impossible that its budget of Toxic is anywhere near Rs 700 Cr. Even if you account for the fact that Hollywood technicians have worked on the project, the rumoured budget has been massively inflated by reports. For a film with a Rs 700 Cr budget to be considered a hit, it typically needs to gross over Rs 1,500 Cr worldwide to break even. Nobody, not even a clueless alien, would believe a Yash film would make that much. KGF 2, a sequel, didn't make more than Rs 1200 Cr.

But is there a chance that interest costs have increased massively due to repeated postponements and an overlong production timeline? Since Toxic was recently pushed back from its June 4 date, rumors have been circulating that the OTT deals offered by Netflix and Amazon Prime are not to the liking of Yash and KVN Productions. Would it make sense for the producers to stall the movie's release in search of a better OTT deal while interest costs continue to climb week after week? Any gains made from a superior future deal could be effectively offset by the mounting interest payouts. It's certain that interest costs are not climbing (for whatever reason), which makes the Rs 700 Cr budget claim all the more wrong.  

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